Ben Lord

 



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1
UK money supply shrinks by most ever - QuitE a Dilemma
Today we have seen the preliminary release of M4 money supply (so-called ' broad money'), and it could potentially be a very important piece of economic data. December saw a 1.1% drop in the money supply, the largest monthly fall since records began in ... 		21-Jan-2010
2
The New Era for Bank Bonds: Send In The Clowns?
The following is a long piece, but we feel it has potentially dramatic implications for the bank bond market. Last week saw the much anticipated capital raisings from Lloyds-HBOS and RBS. Lloyds has managed to raise £13.5 billion in new shares with ... 		12-Nov-2009
3
The UK Residential Mortgage Backed Security market reopens
It's been quite some time since we have seen a new public issue in the UK RMBS market. In fact, it's probably been closed for new deals since the beginning of the crisis. As property prices plummeted, and as everyone fled risk assets for cash and gilts, ... 		29-Sep-2009
4
Does deflation always result in a low and flat yield curve?
We've had a huge rally in risky assets since we wrote a comment about Turning Japanese almost a year ago, and while diminished, the risk of a 'lost decade' is still very real. I thought it would be worth another look. Now I am not out to compare and ... 		25-Sep-2009
5
UK housing : firm foundations, or a rally built on sand?
Recent data releases in the UK have been interpreted as suggesting that the housing market may be showing signs of some form of recovery. Our interpretation, though, would be that the releases suggest merely that the pace of decline is slowing. On top of ... 		30-Jun-2009
6
Monetary Forbearance, and the threat of a double dip financial crisis
With first quarter results out of Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Citigroup this week in the US, and Barclays over here, you might be forgiven for starting to think that the financial crisis is well along the bumpy transition to the next phase, ie a global ... 		17-Apr-2009
7
Frankly A Step Backwards (for the US)?
Yesterday the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) has voted to 'relax' fair-value or mark-to-market accounting rules. This is, in our view, a big step in the wrong direction. We believe that it has done this under huge pressure from politicians, ... 		03-Apr-2009
8
Equitisation of bank capital bonds
Over the past week or so we have seen an interesting development in bank bonds as around a dozen institutions across the UK and Europe have announced that they are tendering for their subordinated debt. Essentially this means they are offering to buy ... 		30-Mar-2009
9
Bank Capital Securities: the new club 18-30
The somewhat bizarre title owes to the fact that euro and sterling bank tier one securities (the most subordinated and equity-like ones) are now priced roughly between 18 cents in the euro, or 18p and 30p in the pound! We have discussed these bonds at ... 		11-Mar-2009
10
Moody's predict surge in defaults
Moody's this week released their expectations for their global speculative grade default rate.Their default model is now (rather belatedly) indicating that there is to be a surge in defaults through this year, with the global speculative grade (ie 'high ... 		16-Jan-2009