Michael Riddell

 



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1
UK housing market flashing amber
The July RICS survey continued the worrying trend of weaker UK data that has been in evidence since the preliminary UK Q2 GDP data release on July 23rd. It seems that the economic slowdown that has been evident in the US in the past few months is no ... 		10-Aug-2010
2
Turning Japanese I Think We're Turning Japanese I Really Think So (follow up)
There is only one explanation for why 2 year US Treasury yields broke below 0.5% today (an all time low), or why 10 year government bond yields in Germany and the US are currently 2.5% and 2.9% respectively. Or, for that matter, why German 30 year bunds ... 		06-Aug-2010
3
UK inflation falls, but potentially worrying signs
The good news was that UK CPI fell from 3.2% to 3.1%. The less good news was that this was 0.1% higher than expectations and remains above the 3.0% upper bound (inflation hasn't been below 3% since December last year). The worrying news was that the Core ... 		13-Jul-2010
4
UK linkers becoming stinkers
In the recent emergency UK budget it was announced that public sector indexation would change from RPI to CPI from April 2011. Now, the government is proposing moving private sector schemes and the Pension Protection Fund (PPF) indexation to CPI too. As ... 		09-Jul-2010
5
Swine Flu II
Exactly one year ago, an outbreak of flu in Mexico led to fears of a global pandemic. 'Swine Flu' did indeed spread around the world, however for most countries it had only a limited effect on economic output. We are now facing something that is likely ... 		27-Apr-2010
6
It's hard to get anyone to make a bear case for EM, so I'm going to try
The EM story is a strong one - in sharp contrast to the developed world, EM counties tend to have favourable sovereign/consumer debt dynamics, current account surpluses, high savings rates (implying scope for a pick up in consumer demand) and strong ... 		31-Mar-2010
7
UK inflation - upward pressure in the short term (though we're still comfortable longer term)
Inflation rates, at least in the non-emerging markets, remain low. US core inflation (CPI less food and energy) was negative in January, the first month on month decline since December 1982. Preliminary German CPI in February was +0.3% year on year. Japan ... 		04-Mar-2010
8
Breakfast with Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, plus competition time
On Tuesday morning, I attended a breakfast with Joseph Stiglitz that was both fascinating and gloomy. Stiglitz, who was formerly the senior adviser to Bill Clinton, Chief Economist at the World Bank, and was awarded the Nobel prize for Economics in 2001, ... 		11-Feb-2010
9
UK inflation soars, but beware of the hysteria
Expectations had been for a big jump going into this morning's release of December UK inflation statistics, however expectations still weren't high enough. The year-on-year CPI inflation rate surged from +1.9% to +2.9%, eclipsing the average forecast of ... 		19-Jan-2010
10
What's driving the US Dollar?
The behaviour of the US Dollar over the past few days has left investors a bit stumped, and the FT have been asking the same question in today's Short View column. Friday of last week saw the biggest rally in the US Dollar since January as an unexpected ... 		08-Dec-2009